US retail is heading into its first trillion-dollar holiday forecast, and most planning decks stop at Cyber Monday. That leaves a costly blind spot, because a second workload arrives after the sales rush ends. In 2026, holiday returns management will shape how much of that record revenue retailers actually keep. Teams that staff only for the sales peak risk meeting the returns peak with thinner coverage.
What the Holiday Retail Forecast Signals for CX Leaders
The National Retail Federation expects November and December sales to grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion. That pace beats last year’s 3.1% gain, when holiday sales reached $972 billion. NRF CEO Matthew Shay said consumers will “prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets.” In short, shoppers will spend, but they will read the fine print first.
Forecast (NRF)
Spend (Adobe)
Return Rate
Retail Traffic
Online demand is climbing faster than the overall market. Adobe forecasts US online holiday spending of $275.1 billion, up 6.7% year over year. It also projects AI-referred retail traffic to rise 130%, while buy now, pay later spending should reach $21.3 billion.
Online Growth, Steady Hiring, and the Capacity Question
NRF expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, broadly in line with last year. These figures do not prove that customer service capacity will fall short. However, they cover different things, since one tracks digital spending and the other tracks hiring across all retail roles. Together, they suggest testing whether current support teams can absorb heavier digital volume and the returns that follow.
Why Holiday Returns Peak After the Sales Rush
– Cyber Monday
Seasonal staff on
Return windows open
contacts climb
Seasonal staff exit
In their 2025 research, NRF and Happy Returns found that retailers expected 17% of holiday sales to come back. If that rate held this year, returns would reach roughly $172 billion. Treat that figure as our scenario estimate, not a forecast, since return rates shift with category and policy. Separately, the same study estimated that 19.3% of online sales would come back across all of 2025.
Timing turns that volume into a staffing problem. Many large retailers extend holiday return windows into late January. Consequently, refund and exchange contacts tend to climb from December 26, just as seasonal contracts end.
The “Where Is My Refund?” Wave
Many brands have cut “where is my order” contacts with tracking pages, as our WISMO call-reduction playbook explains. January, however, brings a quieter cousin, the “where is my refund” call. These contacts multiply when warehouses process returns slowly or credits post late. Installment purchases add another layer, because an agent must apply both the retailer’s policy and the lender’s rules. We saw similar strain when buy now, pay later surges broke legacy CX systems during Cyber Monday.
Fraud Screening Without Alienating Loyal Shoppers
NRF’s research also found that 9% of all returns were fraudulent. That figure forces agents into a difficult balancing act on every shift. They must protect margins without treating loyal customers like suspects in a heist movie. Documented review criteria and clear escalation owners let agents act quickly and fairly.
How Holiday Return Policy Shapes the Sale Itself
Return policies once sat quietly in website footers, but shoppers now read them before buying. Loop’s 2026 US research found that 63% of shoppers have abandoned a purchase or brand over its returns. Additionally, 92% said return fees influence how they shop online. Loop CEO Hannah Bravo told Vision Monday that “shoppers are judging brands on what happens after the sale.” Therefore, agents who explain fees clearly or offer exchanges can protect sales before checkout.
What L.L.Bean’s Policy Change Teaches Retailers
In 2018, L.L.Bean replaced its century-old lifetime return promise with a one-year limit and proof of purchase. According to a University of Tennessee research summary, the change drew public backlash and lawsuits. The same researchers then tested 1,500 US consumers using a fictional retailer, not L.L.Bean customers. Shoppers who received an explanation reacted far less negatively than those who discovered restrictions alone. Researcher Huseyn Abdulla summed it up: “Honesty really is the best policy in this case.”
A Holiday Returns Readiness Plan for 2026
Before Black Friday: Forecast the Second Peak
Start by modeling returns contacts separately from sales contacts. Multiply expected holiday orders by your historical return rate, then by the share of returns that trigger a contact. Next, multiply those contacts by average handle time and divide by productive hours per agent.
Here is a hypothetical example with illustrative inputs. A brand ships 100,000 holiday orders, sees 17% returned, and 40% of those returns generate a contact. That produces 6,800 contacts, which at seven minutes each equals about 793 agent hours. Spread across five January weeks at 30 productive hours each, that needs roughly five agents before shrinkage and headroom.
December: Script, Train, and Route
Next, document every policy change with a one-line reason agents can repeat. Train agents on exchanges, store credit, and installment refunds before volume arrives. Meanwhile, agree on who approves exceptions, so escalations do not stall during the busiest weeks.
December 26 to Late January: Protect the Queue
During the returns peak, track refund resolution time, repeat contacts on the same return, and backlog age. Also watch exchange conversion, cost per resolved contact, and satisfaction on return-related interactions. Rising repeat contacts usually signal slow refund posting rather than poor agent performance.
Deciding What to Automate, Keep, or Outsource
Not every returns workload belongs with the same owner. The framework below matches common contact types with a sensible handling approach.
| Returns Workload | Recommended Handling | Owner |
|---|---|---|
| Return & refund status checks | Self-service tracking + automated status | Automate |
| Refunds awaiting processing | Queue monitoring + proactive updates | Hybrid |
| Exchanges & replacements | Trained agents + inventory visibility | Human |
| BNPL & split-payment refunds | Payment-specific procedures + escalation | Human |
| Suspected return fraud | Documented criteria + authorized escalation | Specialist |
| High-value customer complaints | Experienced agents + clear resolution authority | Human |
Automation fits the first rows, provided it can read order and refund data. An AI voice agent for retail support can answer eligible status and policy questions around the clock. Human agents should still handle disputed refunds, damaged products, high-value orders, and cases meeting fraud-review criteria.
Separately, Adobe reports that 69% of shoppers who used AI while shopping felt less likely to return items. That reflects better product decisions before purchase, not proof that service automation reduces returns.
For the middle rows, retail customer service outsourcing adds trained capacity without permanent February hires. Exchanges also create a customer retention opportunity when agents can offer the right size or color.
Plan for the January Returns Surge Now
The 2026 forecast promises strong revenue, but January will test how well retailers protect it. If timing is your question, our guide on when US retailers should start holiday outsourcing sets out the milestones.
ServeRetail works only with retail and ecommerce brands, supporting customers across voice, chat, email, and social channels. Plan for the January returns surge before peak season begins. Our returns, refunds and claims processing team can assess your return volume, support needs, and overflow capacity. Talk to our retail CX team about your January workload today.
